NFL playoff prop picks Tom Brady Russell from seestyle's blog

Using 17 weeks of regular-season data and tirele s searching through player props, here are some prop bets to consider from every game in Super Wild Card Weekend, including at least one per game where the bettor gets some sweet odds.Best bet Over 305.5 pa s yards (-115)The Bills offense has run through Allen all season, there's no reason to believe it's going to stop now. That goes double against a Colts defense that's been stout versus the run but has really taken a dip against the pa s (four of past five opponents with over 315 pa s yards). The weather isn't expected to be a factor in the game. More I likeTY Hilton Over 53.5 receiving yards (-115) Over 22.5 rush yards (-115)Hilton's had 71-plus yards in four straight games. New York Giants Jackets Maybe it's a line they're begging you to take, but when push comes to shove, I think the Colts will have to throw a good amount and Hilton is Rivers' top target. Hines doesn't need many yards to win this bet and the Colts probably don't want to lean too much on rookie in his first playoff game. Squeezing the juiceAlternate total: Over 57 (+180)7+ total TDs (+155)I love the Over as it is, but if we take the alternate total with the same spread, the implied team totals are 25.25 for Indy, 31.75 for Buffalo. Indianapolis has hit 26 points in six of its past seven; Buffalo has hit 32 points in four of its past five. If you're squeamish on that one, then the seven-score prop is a sensible alternative, especially since the primary over total of 51 points sits at -110. Best bet Under 23.5 completions (-105)Not sure which Wilson prop to take? Consider this: Harry Carson Jersey Wilson has completed 23 or fewer pa ses in seven of his past eight including both games against the Rams. Also, the Rams have held quarterbacks to under 24 completions in five straight and 10 total on the season. Last point: Wilson has typically found his legs in the late season and playoffs, racking up at least 20 rush yards in 11 of 15 career postseason games. The more he runs, the le s he throws. More I like Over 51.5 rec yards (-115) Under 6.5 rec yards (-120)Playmakers are relied upon more in the playoffs, and Kupp's been that for the Rams since he's gotten there. It helps that he posted at least 50 yards in each of two matchups against the Seahawks this season. Swain is a role player who's played 37% or fewer snaps in each of his past three and literally has one or zero targets in each of his past three, six of his past seven and 11 of 16 games. Squeezing the juiceRu sell Wilson Over 0.5 interceptions (+140)Wilson threw a career-high 13 interceptions this season with two coming in his first meeting with the Rams. I think this is a pretty solid price. Best bet Over 1.5 field goals (+100)Not only has Hopkins notched at least two field goals in eight of his past nine games, but he's also done it in each of six starts this season. Tampa Bay's defense is fearsome but not dominant. At even money, Hopkins has a great chance to come through. More I like Under 296.5 pa sing yards (-115)J.D. McKi sic Over 30.5 receiving yards (-120) Washington has given up 290-plus pa sing yards in just two games all season, and Brady's dominant pa sing games have come against the league's softest pa s defenses. Washington ranks second versus the pa s, seventh in pa s rush pre sure rate and sixth in sacks. As for McKi sic, he's totaled at least 31 receiving yards in nine games this year, eight of them Washington lo ses. Washington is the second-biggest underdog on the board this week.Squeezing the juice Under 1.5 receptions New York Giants Hoodies Sweatshirts (+120)Washington Over 20.5 points (+155)Washington Over 22 points (+200)Washington Over 23.5 points (+250)Jones is definitely the Buccaneers' top back, but he rarely plays in pa sing situations. Jones played exactly one third-down snap (third-and-1) in each of his past two games. More significantly, he's had one receptions or fewer in each of his past five. Washington's implied point total this week is 18.5, but it's scored at least 20 points in every single start by Smith. Also, the Buccaneers defense has yielded exactly 27 points in four of its past six. Best betJK Dobbins Over 63.5 rush yards (-115)Dobbins has come alive with at least 64 rush yards in five of his past six games. I know he's a rookie, but I'd be stunned if the Ravens turn to or and really limit Dobbins' workload at this point. The Titans have given up 5.9 yards per rush to running backs over their past three games. More I likeJK Dobbins and to score TDs (+333) and JK Dobbins to score TDs (+210) Dobbins has scored in six straight games and the Titans have shed five rushing scores to backs over their past three. Seems like a lock, so why not parlay it with the two other people in this game who seem likely to score. Dobbins and Jackson are each +110 for an anytime score while Henry is -200, so either of these bets wipe out the juice from the individual bets. Squeezing the juiceRavens Over 28.5 points (+155)Ravens Over 30 points (+185)Ravens Over 31.5 points (+250)The Ravens have scored 34 points in four of their past five wins, and the Titans have given up Tiki Barber Jersey at least 38 points in each of their past two. Best bets Over 93.5 total yards (-115)David Montgomery anytime TD (+120)Montgomery has totaled over 100 yards in six straight games and scored in five straight games. He is the Bears' best offensive weapon and has the strengthened offensive line to help him. The Saints' run defense, once feared as the most dangerous in football, has yielded six rushing scores and 5.2 yards per carry to enemy runners in its past four games. More I like anytime touchdown (+200)Bears Over 19 points (+100)The Bears have struggled covering tight ends all season, giving up 12 Leonard Williams Jersey touchdowns to the position. Cook has routinely been an end-zone target of Drew Brees', plus he scored on the Bears back in Week 8. Meanwhile, the Bears have scored at least 19 points in seven of nine starts this season. This is a good anchor bet for what you're about to read.Squeezing the juiceBears Over 20.5 points (+140)Bears Over 22 points (+180)Bears Over 23.5 points (+225) Before last week's predictable let-down game against bitter rival Green Bay, the Bears had scored at least 30 points in four straight. Clearly they're finding their way to the end zone. New Orleans has allowed at least 24 points in three of its past four games. Best bet Under 239.5 pa sing yards (-115)So yes, Mayfield has put up over 250 yards in five of his past six. But he didn't even get to 200 yards against the Steelers' diminished defense in Week 17, nor did he in Week 6, nor has he ever had 200 yards against Pittsburgh in five career games! Now he's supposed to with his playcaller not at the game and with the Steelers defense return

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By seestyle
Added Feb 16 '23

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